Space agency leaders express fears and hopes for the future
“The world is more volatile, the world is more unpredictable, and in many respects the world is a more dangerous place than it has been for a long time.”
In his opening speech at the 20th Appleton Space Conference on 5 December, UK Space Agency (UKSA) deputy chief executive Chris White-Horne seemed determined to out-gloom the leaden skies above the ESA conference centre in Harwell, Oxfordshire. Speaking to an audience of academics and industry professionals, White-Horne ticked off a long list of ways that this more dangerous world might affect the space sector and the people who rely on it.
“We have built an almost insidious dependence on space,” he observed. Severe space weather, accidents, system failures or deliberate damage by an adversary could all trigger a loss of satellite-based position, navigation and timing services. Even a single day without modern essentials like GPS would wreak havoc on the economy, while a longer outage would be devastating. “A day without space is just the beginning,” he warned, adding that the real challenge would start on the second or third day, when supply chains would be disrupted worldwide. “We saw in COVID how very fragile some of these systems are.”
While some might prefer to leave contingency planning to military officials, White-Horne argued that the vulnerability of space infrastructure makes it a challenge for the entire sector – government, academia, and manufacturers and operators of space systems and applications alike. “Very few people can say, ‘It’s not my problem’,” he said.
A changing sector
In his keynote speech later in the day, White-Horne’s boss, UKSA chief executive Paul Bate, struck a more hopeful note by focusing on changes in the space sector since 2004, when the first Appleton Space Conference was held. In that year, the world managed just 54 orbital launches, including 18 by Russia and 16 by the US. By 2024, the number had risen to 225 – and counting. This figure includes 118 launches by a private company, SpaceX, which did not achieve its first orbit until 2008. “How we get into space has changed dramatically,” Bate said.
Another positive change Bate highlighted is the industry’s demographics. At the start of the conference, Sarah Beardsley, who leads the Rutherford Appleton Laboratory’s space division (STFC RAL Space), displayed a photo of the organizers of the first Appleton Space Conference. The photo showed a smiling group of around a dozen men in dark suits and ties. “We let women in now,” she quipped, to general laughter.
The UKSA’s own demographics bear this out. According to Bate, 46% of the agency’s staff are women, while a fifth come from ethnic minorities. Still, Bate, who is white, acknowledged that the agency needs to do more to attract diverse talent to higher-level roles: “I spend time in far too many meetings with people who look just like me.”
Taken as a whole, Bate said that the UK space sector remains 86% white and 64% male, while the percentage of space-sector workers who were eligible for free school meals as children is half the national average. While some may see this as irrelevant, Bate argued that the opposite is true. Space, he said, is “a team sport” that needs to draw talent from everywhere, and its leaders must embrace diversity of thought and experience if they want to solve big, difficult problems. “It’s very tempting to see science as aloof from societal change,” he said. “The opposite is true.”
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