↩ Accueil

Vue lecture

People benefit from medicine, but machines need healthcare too

I began my career in the 1990s at a university spin-out company, working for a business that developed vibration sensors to monitor the condition of helicopter powertrains and rotating machinery. It was a job that led to a career developing technologies and techniques for checking the “health” of machines, such as planes, trains and trucks.

What a difference three decades has made. When I started out, we would deploy bespoke systems that generated limited amounts of data. These days, everything has gone digital and there’s almost more information than we can handle. We’re also seeing a growing use of machine learning and artificial intelligence (AI) to track how machines operate.

In fact, with AI being increasingly used in medical science – for example to predict a patient’s risk of heart attacks – I’ve noticed intriguing similarities between how we monitor the health of machines and the health of human bodies. Jet engines and hearts are very different objects, but in both cases monitoring devices gives us a set of digitized physical measurements.

A healthy perspective

Sensors installed on a machine provide various basic physical parameters, such as its temperature, pressure, flow rate or speed. More sophisticated devices can yield information about, say, its vibration, acoustic behaviour, or (for an engine) oil debris or quality. Bespoke sensors might even be added if an important or otherwise unchecked aspect of a machine’s performance needs to be monitored – provided the benefits of doing so outweigh the cost.

Generally speaking, the sensors you use in a particular situation depend on what’s worked before and whether you can exploit other measurements, such as those controlling the machine. But whatever sensors are used, the raw data then have to be processed and manipulated to extract particular features and characteristics.

If the machine appears to be going wrong, can you try to diagnose what the problem might be?

Once you’ve done all that, you can then determine the health of the machine, rather like in medicine. Is it performing normally? Does it seem to be developing a fault? If the machine appears to be going wrong, can you try to diagnose what the problem might be?

Generally, we do this by tracking a range of parameters to look for consistent behaviour, such as a steady increase, or by seeing if a parameter exceeds a pre-defined threshold. With further analysis, we can also try to predict the future state of the machine, work out what its remaining useful life might be, or decide if any maintenance needs scheduling.

A diagnosis typically involves linking various anomalous physical parameters (or symptoms) to a probable cause. As machines obey the laws of physics, a diagnosis can either be based on engineering knowledge or be driven by data – or sometimes the two together. If a concrete diagnosis can’t be made, you can still get a sense of where a problem might lie before carrying out further investigation or doing a detailed inspection.

One way of doing this is to use a “borescope” – essentially a long, flexible cable with a camera on the end. Rather like an endoscope in medicine, it allows you to look down narrow or difficult-to-reach cavities. But unlike medical imaging, which generally takes place in the controlled environment of a lab or clinic, machine data are typically acquired “in the field”. The resulting images can be tricky to interpret because the light is poor, the measurements are inconsistent, or the equipment hasn’t been used in the most effective way.

Even though it can be hard to work out what you’re seeing, in-situ visual inspections are vital as they provide evidence of a known condition, which can be directly linked to physical sensor measurements. It’s a kind of health status calibration. But if you want to get more robust results, it’s worth turning to advanced modelling techniques, such as deep neural networks.

One way to predict the wear and tear of a machine’s constituent parts is to use what’s known as a “digital twin”. Essentially a virtual replica of a physical object, a digital twin is created by building a detailed model and then feeding in real-time information from sensors and inspections. The twin basically mirrors the behaviour, characteristics and performance of the real object.

Real-time monitoring

Real-time health data are great because they allow machines to be serviced as and when required, rather than following a rigid maintenance schedule. For example, if a machine has been deployed heavily in a difficult environment, it can be serviced sooner, potentially preventing an unexpected failure. Conversely, if it’s been used relatively lightly and not shown any problems, then  maintenance could be postponed or reduced in scope. This saves time and money because the equipment will be out of action less than anticipated.

We can work out which parts will need repairing or replacing, when the maintenance will be required and who will do it

Having information about a machine’s condition at any point in time not only allows this kind of “intelligent maintenance” but also lets us use associated resources wisely. For example, we can work out which parts will need repairing or replacing, when the maintenance will be required and who will do it. Spare parts can therefore be ordered only when required, saving money and optimizing supply chains.

Real-time health-monitoring data are particularly useful for companies owning many machines of one kind, such as airlines with a fleet of planes or haulage companies with a lot of trucks. It gives them a better understanding not just of how machines behave individually – but also collectively to give a “fleet-wide” view. Noticing and diagnosing failures from data becomes an iterative process, helping manufacturers create new or improved machine designs.

This all sounds great, but in some respects, it’s harder to understand a machine than a human. People can be taken to hospitals or clinics for a medical scan, but a wind turbine or jet engine, say, can’t be readily accessed, switched off or sent for treatment. Machines also can’t tell us exactly how they feel.

However, even humans don’t always know when there’s something wrong. That’s why it’s worth us taking a leaf from industry’s book and consider getting regular health monitoring and checks. There are lots of brilliant apps out there to monitor and track your heart rate, blood pressure, physical activity and sugar levels.

Just as with a machine, you can avoid unexpected failure, reduce your maintenance costs, and make yourself more efficient and reliable. You could, potentially, even live longer too.

The post People benefit from medicine, but machines need healthcare too appeared first on Physics World.

  •  

Vapourware and unobtanium: why overselling is not (always) a good idea

What does the word “overselling” mean to you? At one level, it can just mean selling more of something than already exists or can be delivered. It’s what happens when airlines overbook flights by selling more seats than physically exist on their planes. They assume a small fraction of passengers won’t turn up, which is fine – until you can’t fly because everyone else has rocked up ahead of you.

Overselling can also involve selling more of something than is strictly required. Also known as “upselling”, you might have experienced it when buying a car or taking out a new broadband contract. You end up paying for extras and add-ons that were offered but you didn’t really need or even want, which explains why you’ve got all those useless WiFi boosters lying around the house.

There’s also a third meaning of “overselling”, which is to exaggerate the merits of something. You see it when a pharmaceutical company claims its amazing anti-ageing product “will make you live 20 years longer”, which it won’t. Overselling in this instance means overstating a product’s capability or functionality. It’s pretending something is more mature than it is, or claiming a technology is real when it’s still at proof-of-concept-stage.

From my experience in science and technology, this form of overselling often happens when companies and their staff want to grab attention or to keep customers or consumers on board. Sometimes firms do it because they are genuinely enthusiastic (possibly too much so) about the future possibilities of their product. I’m not saying overselling is necessarily a bad thing but just that there are reservations.

Fact and fiction

Before I go any further, let’s learn the lingo of overselling. First off, there’s “vapourware”, which refers to a product that either doesn’t exist or doesn’t fulfil the stated technical capability. Often, it’s something a firm wants to include in its product portfolio because they’re sure people would like to own it. Deep down, though, the company knows the product simply isn’t possible, at least not right now. Like a vapour, it’s there but can’t be touched.

Sometimes vapourware is just a case of waiting for product development to catch up with a genuine product plan. Sales staff know they haven’t got the product at the right specification yet, and while the firm will definitely get there one day, they’re pretending the hurdles have already been crossed. But genuine over-enthusiasm can sometimes cross over into wishful thinking – the idea that a certain functionality can be achieved with an existing technical approach.

Do you remember Google Glass? This was wearable tech, integrated into spectacle frames, that was going to become the ubiquitous portable computer. Information would be requested via voice commands, with the user receiving back the results, visible on a small heads-up display. While the computing technology worked, the product didn’t succeed. Not only did it look clunky, there were also deployment constraints and concerns about privacy and safety.

Google Glass simply didn’t capture the public’s imagination or meet the needs of enough consumers

Google Glass failed on multiple levels and was discontinued in 2015, barely a year after it hit the market. Subsequent relaunches didn’t succeed either and the product was pulled for a final time in 2023. Despite Google’s best efforts, the product simply didn’t capture the public’s imagination or meet the needs of enough consumers.

Next up in our dictionary of overselling is “unobtanium”, which is a material or material specification that we would like to exist, but simply doesn’t. In the aerospace sector, where I work, we often dream of unobtanium. We’re always looking for materials that can repeatedly withstand the operational extremes encountered during a flight, while also being sustainable without cutting corners on safety.

Like other engine manufacturers, my company – GE Aerospace – is pioneering multiple approaches to help develop such materials. We know that engines become more efficient when they burn at higher temperatures and pressures. We also know that nitrous-oxide (NOx) emissions fall when an engine burns more leanly. Unfortunately, there are no metals we know of that can survive to such high temperatures.

But the quest for unobtanium can drive innovative technical solutions. At GE, for example, we’re making progress by looking instead at composite materials, such as carbon fibre and composite matrix ceramics. Stronger and more tolerant to heat and pressure than metals, they’ve already been included on the turbofan engines in planes such as the Boeing 787 Dreamliner.

We’re also using “additive manufacturing” to build components layer by layer. This approach lets us make highly intricate components with far less waste than conventional techniques, in which a block of material is machined away. We’re also developing innovative lean-burn combustion technologies, such as novel cooling and flow strategies, to reduce NOx emissions.

While unobtanium can never be reached, it’s worth trying to get there to drive technology forward

A further example is the single crystal turbine blade developed by Rolls-Royce in 2012. Each blade is cast to form a single crystal of super alloy, making it extremely strong and able to resist the intense heat inside a jet engine. According to the company, the single crystal turbine blades operate up to 200 degrees above the melting point of their alloy. So while unobtanium can never be reached, it’s worth trying to get there to drive technology forward.

Lead us not into temptation

Now, here’s the caveat. There’s an unwelcome side to overselling, which is that it can easily morph into downright mis-selling. This was amply demonstrated by the Volkswagen diesel emissions scandal, which saw the German carmaker install “defeat devices” in its diesel engines. The software changed how the engine performed when it was undergoing emissions tests to make its NOx emissions levels appear much lower than they really were.

VW was essentially falsifying its diesel engine emissions to conform with international standards. After regulators worldwide began investigating the company, VW took a huge reputational and financial hit, ultimately costing it more than $33bn in fines, penalties and financial settlements. Senior chiefs at the company got the sack and the company’s reputation took a serious hit.

It’s tempting – and sometimes even fun – to oversell. Stretching the truth draws interest from customers and consumers. But when your product no longer does “what it says on the tin”, your brand can suffer, probably more so than having something slightly less functional.

On the upside, the quest for unobtanium and, to some extent, the selling of vapourware can drive technical progress and lead to better technical solutions. I suspect this was the case for Google Glass. The underlying technology has had some success in certain niche applications such as medical surgery and manufacturing. So even though Google Glass didn’t succeed, it did create a gap for other vendors to fill.

Google Glass was essentially a portable technology with similar functionality to smartphones, such as wireless Internet access and GPS connectivity. Customers, however, proved to be happier carrying this kind of technology in their hands than wearing it on their heads. The smartphone took off; Google Glass didn’t. But the underlying tech – touchpads, cameras, displays, processors and so on – got diverted into other products.

Vapourware, in other words, can give a firm a competitive edge while it waits for its product to mature. Who knows, maybe one day even Google Glass will make a comeback?

The post Vapourware and unobtanium: why overselling is not (always) a good idea appeared first on Physics World.

  •