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Kári Tulinius has messaged in to say:

“Given that eight out of twelve third-place teams will get to the knockout stage, four points should be enough to get through. Given the potential disparity in quality between France, Senegal and Norway on the one hand, and one of Bolivia, Suriname and Iraq on the other, it’s not unlikely we’ll get a group where the third place team has four points and a positive goal difference. It could be the Group of Everybody Lives. The era of group stage drama may be over.”