By studying how light from eight distant quasars is gravitationally lensed as it propagates towards Earth, astronomers have calculated a new value for the Hubble constant – a parameter that describes the rate at which the universe is expanding. The result agrees more closely with previous “late-universe” probes of this constant than it does with calculations based on observations of the cosmic microwave background (CMB) in the early universe, strengthening the notion that we may be misunderstanding something fundamental about how the universe works.
The universe has been expanding ever since the Big Bang nearly 14 billion years ago. We know this, in part, because of observations made in the 1920s by the American astronomer Edwin Hubble. By measuring the redshift of various galaxies, Hubble discovered that galaxies further away from Earth are moving away faster than galaxies that are closer to us. The relationship between this speed and the galaxies’ distance is known as the Hubble constant, H0.
Astronomers have developed several techniques for measuring H0. The problem is that different techniques deliver different values. According to measurements made by the European Space Agency’s Planck satellite of CMB radiation “left over” from the Big Bang, the value of H0 is about 67 kilometres per second per megaparsec (km/s/Mpc), where one Mpc is 3.3 million light years. In contrast, “distance-ladder” measurements such as those made by the SH0ES collaboration those involving observations of type Ia supernovae yield a value of about 73 km/s/Mpc. This discrepancy is known as the Hubble tension.
Time-delay cosmography
In the latest work, the TDCOSMO collaboration, which includes astronomers Kenneth Wong and Eric Paic of the University of Tokyo, Japan, measured H0 using a technique called time-delay cosmography. This well-established method dates back to 1964 and uses the fact that massive galaxies can act as lenses, deflecting the light from objects behind them so that from our perspective, these objects appear distorted.
“This is called gravitational lensing, and if the circumstances are right, we’ll actually see multiple distorted images, each of which will have taken a slightly different pathway to get to us, taking different amounts of time,” Wong explains.
By looking for changes in these images that are identical, but slightly out of sync, astronomers can measure the time differences required for the light from the objects to reach Earth. Then, by combining these data with estimates of the distribution of the mass of the distorting galactic lens, they can calculate H0.
Based on these measurements, they obtained a H0 value of roughly 71.6 km s−1 Mpc−1, which is more consistent with current-day observations (such as that from SH0ES) than early-universe ones (such as that from Planck). Wong explains that this discrepancy supports the idea that the Hubble tension arises from real physics, not just some unknown error in the various methods. “Our measurement is completely independent of other methods, both early- and late-universe, so if there are any systematic uncertainties in those, we should not be affected by them,” he says.
The astronomers say that the SLACS and SL2S sample data are in excellent agreement with the new TDCOSMO-2025 sample, while the new measurements improve the precision of H0 to 4.6%. However, Paic notes that nailing down the value of H0 to a level that would “definitely confirm” the Hubble tension will require a precision of 1-2%. “This could be possible by increasing the number of objects observed as well as ruling out any systematic errors as yet unaccounted for,” he says.
Wong adds that while the TDCOSMO-2025 dataset contains its own uncertainties, multiple independent measurements should, in principle, strengthen the result. “One of the largest sources of uncertainty is the fact that we don’t know exactly how the mass in the lens galaxies is distributed,” he explains. “It is usually assumed that the mass follows some simple profile that is consistent with observations, but it is hard to be sure and this uncertainty can directly influence the values we calculate.”
The biggest hurdle, Wang adds, will “probably be addressing potential sources of systematic uncertainty, making sure we have thought of all the possible ways that our result could be wrong or biased and figuring out how to handle those uncertainties.”
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