Deutsche Bank’s chief UK economist Sanjay Raja agrees that the UK’s labour market is continuing to cool, with both payrolls and vacancies down.
Raja explains:
Redundancies remain elevated with the May data showing a 114k increase in the three months to May – its highest level in three months. Jobs demand remains weak as hiring plans are near a standstill.
This will continue to see unemployment rise – but we think this will be a slow grind higher as opposed to a whipsaw higher. For the MPC, despite the bump higher in inflation, the loosening in labour market should give the BoE reason to proceed with a gradual dial down of restrictive policy.
The fallout in the labour market from the hikes in National Insurance Contributions and the minimum wage is not as big as previously thought. Even so, as payroll employment is falling and wage growth is easing, the Bank of England will still continue to cut interest rates despite yesterday’s strong inflation release.
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